On Wednesday evening January 15, Danes were glued to their screens, waiting for Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland’s Naalakkersuisut – minister for foreign affairs and research – Vivian Motzfeldt, to give an update on how the meeting with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had gone.
Ahead of the press conference, President Donald Trump had repeatedly expressed his need to control Greenland because of national security.
“We need that because if you take a look outside of Greenland right now, there are Russian destroyers, there are Chinese destroyers and, bigger, there are Russian submarines all over the place. We’re not gonna have Russia or China occupy Greenland, and that’s what they’re going to do if we don’t,” he said.
Shortly before the press conference, he repeated it once again on his social media platform Truth Social.
“NATO: Tell Denmark to get them out of here, NOW! Two dogsleds won’t do it! Only the USA can!!! Danish intel warned last year about Russian and Chinese military goals toward Greenland and Arctic,” he writes, linking to an article dealing with the Danish Defence Intelligence Service’s (DDIS) threat assessment of the Kingdom of Denmark.
At the press conference, Lars Løkke Rasmussen challenged Donald Trump’s claim about the Russian and Chinese ships.
“It is not true that there are Chinese warships everywhere. According to our intelligence, there has not been a Chinese warship in Greenland in the past decade,” Lars Løkke Rasmussen says.
Later that evening Danish time, Lars Løkke Rasmussen appeared on the American TV channel Fox News, where he repeated that “there are absolutely no Chinese footprints in Greenland.”
But what does DDIS’s threat assessment, which Donald Trump refers to, actually say about the Russian and Chinese threat to Greenland?
Is China present in Greenland?
DDIS’ report ‘Udsyn 2025’ was published in December 2025.
Let us dive into it and first focus on what the report says about the Chinese threat in the area around Greenland.
Among other things, it states that China is not yet militarily present in the Arctic, but that it is preparing to be.
“China sails icebreakers and research vessels in the Arctic and has, together with Russia, practised patrolling the region. The purpose is to become capable of operating militarily in the Arctic on its own. China’s activities take place predominantly in the part of the Arctic Ocean that lies north of the Bering Strait towards the North Pole.”
According to DDIS, China’s ambition is that in 5–10 years it will be able to sail military surface vessels and submarines independently. DDIS adds that China’s ultimate goal “is to be able to sail missile submarines under the ice cap in order to achieve the same ability as Russia and the United States to retaliate against attacks with nuclear weapons.”
DDIS here uses the geographical concept of the Arctic, but adds that China’s long-term interests in the Arctic also include Greenland.
Donald Trump is therefore right that the Danish intelligence service mentions China in its threat assessment. But he is wrong when he says that there are Chinese ships everywhere near Greenland today, because DDIS does not mention anything about that.
Is Russia present in Greenland?
When Lars Løkke Rasmussen has been confronted with Donald Trump’s claim, he has not addressed the Russian ships.
If one reads DDIS’s report, the picture also becomes somewhat more serious, but can at the same time give rise to confusion.
DDIS assesses that Russia has far-reaching plans for its entire Arctic area – both militarily and civilian. At the same time, the assessment is that the military threat from Russia to the Kingdom of Denmark will increase in the coming years.
The so-called GIUK Gap, which consists of the waters between Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands and the United Kingdom, is regarded by Russia as the most important access route to and from the Arctic. The GIUK Gap is therefore important for Russia if an armed conflict with NATO were to unfold, DDIS writes.
“Russia therefore systematically monitors NATO activities and maps all the waters in the GIUK Gap. This takes place with both military and civilian vessels, including fishing vessels, and other means such as aircraft and satellites.”
At the same time, DDIS writes that Russia “is at times active with submarines, surface vessels and aircraft near both Greenland and the Faroe Islands and throughout the entire area between them”. In addition, civilian Russian vessels sail around the area and carry out tasks on behalf of the Russian state, DDIS adds.
But does that mean that Donald Trump is right when he says that it is teeming with Russian ships in Greenland?
Not if you ask Marc Jacobsen, who holds a PhD in International Politics and is an associate professor at the Institute for Strategy and War Studies at the Royal Danish Defence College.
“His point is wrong. Trump is talking about the coast, and it is not correct that there are Russian ships here. We know that from the Arctic Command, and we have solid data on that. ‘Near’ should not be understood as by the coast. It is further out, I cannot say exactly how close. But what Donald Trump says is wrong,” he says.
“My assessment is that it is a question of the GIUK Gap and also further up in the sea between Greenland and Svalbard, and there it is more a matter of submarines than surface vessels. There is no doubt that there are Russian submarines under the ice in the Arctic Ocean. It is a strategically important area. That is how I understand it.”
According to Jørgen Meedom Staun, who is an associate professor at the Institute for Strategy and War Studies at the Royal Danish Defence College, the Russians are less active in the GIUK Gap than before.
“There are still some Russian exercises out in the Atlantic – also some that come close to Greenland. But the overall picture is that the majority of Russian exercises take place up in the Barents Sea, in the White Sea and over by the Bering Strait near Alaska,” Jørgen Meedom Staun says.
TjekDet has asked DDIS to elaborate on how close ships and aircraft are when they are “near” Greenland, and how often Russian military aircraft, ships and submarines are near Greenland.
DDIS states that they are not able to address the questions within the editorial deadline.